PAGE
2026-09-30
One quarterly case, as issued and signed.
EXHIBIT K.1 · THE CASE
Where Brent could be in September 2027
MONTHLY AVERAGE PRICE, US$ PER BARREL
Live case of 30 September 2026, signed 8 October 2026
LOW64.651 in 10 chance it ends below
MIDDLE102.52as likely above as below
HIGH135.921 in 10 chance it ends above
Brent, monthly average (FRED)signed range, low to highmiddlefair value from the fundamentals, month by month (after the case date: kept at 93.51, as the case assumes)
EXHIBIT K.2 · MONTHLY CHECK
How the case is doing, month by month
automatic, no new forecast
Checks start in mid-November 2026, with the October average.
OctOctober 2026: not checked yet. Checked after 10 November 2026.NovNovember 2026: not checked yet. Checked after 10 December 2026.DecDecember 2026: not checked yet. Checked after 10 January 2027.JanJanuary 2027: not checked yet. Checked after 10 February 2027.FebFebruary 2027: not checked yet. Checked after 10 March 2027.MarMarch 2027: not checked yet. Checked after 10 April 2027.AprApril 2027: not checked yet. Checked after 10 May 2027.MayMay 2027: not checked yet. Checked after 10 June 2027.JunJune 2027: not checked yet. Checked after 10 July 2027.JulJuly 2027: not checked yet. Checked after 10 August 2027.AugAugust 2027: not checked yet. Checked after 10 September 2027.SepSeptember 2027: not checked yet. Checked after 10 October 2027.Scoring month: the case is scored on this month's average.
Green: the month's average was inside the signed range for that month. Red: outside. September 2027 (framed) is the month the case is scored on.
EXHIBIT K.3 · FACTS
| Case | 30 September 2026 · live case |
| Data up to | 30 September 2026 |
| Signed | 8 October 2026, Klaas Kostro, for Reservoir GmbH |
| Brent, September average | 114.16 |
| Fair value (diagnostic) | 93.51, about 20.65 below the market |
| Scored | October 2027, on the September 2027 average |
| Next signed case | 31 December 2026, published by mid-January 2027 |
CHECK IT YOURSELF
Reference series: the monthly mean of daily Brent spot settlements as published by FRED (series DCOILBRENTEU).
EXHIBIT K.4 · THIS CASE AS TEXT
For reading or pasting into an assistant.