{
  "schema": "oiltrader.case_inputs/1",
  "case_id": "2026-09-30",
  "market": "brent",
  "kind": "live",
  "frozen_at": "2026-10-08T07:55:53.738417+00:00",
  "note": "The inputs this case was computed on, frozen at issue and never rewritten. rederive() reproduces the answer in case.json from this file alone -- no database, no network. The file carries the question only; the answer is in case.json. Later revisions to these series are recorded in a separate drift report, never here.",
  "as_of_requested": "2026-10-08",
  "as_of_effective": "2026-09-30",
  "frame_end_month": "2026-09-30",
  "excluded_partial_month": "2026-10-31",
  "held_back_months": [],
  "fit": {
    "fit_start_effective": "2018-10-31",
    "fit_end": "2026-09-30",
    "window_months": 96,
    "alpha": 2.0,
    "price_space": "linear",
    "active_drivers": [
      "F1",
      "F3",
      "F4",
      "F5",
      "F6",
      "F8",
      "F13"
    ],
    "feature_columns": [
      "z_global_activity",
      "z_geopolitics",
      "z_non_opec_supply",
      "z_usd_index",
      "z_inventory_balance",
      "z_rates",
      "z_product_spread"
    ],
    "sign_constraints": {
      "z_global_activity": ">= 0",
      "z_geopolitics": ">= 0",
      "z_non_opec_supply": "<= 0",
      "z_usd_index": "<= 0",
      "z_inventory_balance": "<= 0",
      "z_rates": "free",
      "z_product_spread": ">= 0"
    },
    "band_floor": 5.0,
    "forward_horizon_months": 12
  },
  "code_version": "d954fab",
  "data_hash": "c464f64f36d24abe",
  "raw_input_hash": "8c739ae2977a09b0",
  "drivers": {
    "F1": {
      "name": "Global Economic Activity",
      "feature_key": "global_activity",
      "column": "global_activity",
      "z_column": "z_global_activity",
      "revises": true,
      "revision_source": "FRED INDPRO (data/pipeline/fred_loader.py:23)",
      "revision_note": "PUBLISHER. Industrial Production is an ESTIMATE. The Federal Reserve G.17 release revises the preceding months with each publication and rebenchmarks annually, so a 2024 row fetched today is not the row that existed in 2024. IN-TREE: data/pipeline/as_of.py:18 states FRED revises history."
    },
    "F2": {
      "name": "OPEC+ Production Policy",
      "feature_key": "opec_policy",
      "column": "opec_policy",
      "z_column": "z_opec_policy",
      "revises": true,
      "revision_source": "EIA International petroleum supply (data/pipeline/opec_loader.py)",
      "revision_note": "PUBLISHER. EIA restates international supply as reporting countries and secondary sources update. The loader's own docstring notes the series lands 6-8 weeks late, which is when restatement happens. Staged, so not in the fit -- the flag still applies to the stored column."
    },
    "F3": {
      "name": "Geopolitics & Disruptions",
      "feature_key": "geopolitics",
      "column": "geopolitics",
      "z_column": "z_geopolitics",
      "revises": false,
      "revision_source": "RSS / GDELT counts stored in this tree",
      "revision_note": "IN-TREE. Not an upstream series at all: the history is derived from news_entries_* and news_count_history_*, which are append-only in this repository (CLAUDE.md 9f). Nothing upstream can restate a past value. The counts CAN change if the derivation changes, which is a code change and is caught by code_version, not by drift."
    },
    "F4": {
      "name": "US Crude Production",
      "feature_key": "non_opec_supply",
      "column": "non_opec_supply",
      "z_column": "z_non_opec_supply",
      "revises": true,
      "revision_source": "EIA petroleum supply (data/pipeline/eia_loader.py)",
      "revision_note": "PUBLISHER. EIA revises monthly supply for roughly two years after first publication and rebenchmarks against the Petroleum Supply Annual. IN-TREE: data/pipeline/as_of.py:18 states EIA revises history; steo_capacity_loader.py:35 names EIA petroleum as one of the revision-exposed sources."
    },
    "F5": {
      "name": "USD Exchange Rate",
      "feature_key": "usd_index",
      "column": "usd_index",
      "z_column": "z_usd_index",
      "revises": false,
      "revision_source": "FRED DTWEXBGS (data/pipeline/fred_loader.py:24)",
      "revision_note": "PUBLISHER. The Nominal Broad Dollar Index is computed from OBSERVED exchange rates on the day. There is no estimate to re-estimate. Being a FRED series does not by itself imply revision -- what revises is the statistic, not the host."
    },
    "F6": {
      "name": "Inventories & Balance",
      "feature_key": "inventory_balance",
      "column": "inventory_balance",
      "z_column": "z_inventory_balance",
      "revises": true,
      "revision_source": "EIA inventories / balance (data/pipeline/eia_loader.py)",
      "revision_note": "PUBLISHER. Weekly stocks are revised into the monthly series and the balance is rebenchmarked. IN-TREE: same two citations as F4. This is the third of the three drivers the Replay screen names as revising (dashboard/screens/replay.py:151)."
    },
    "F7": {
      "name": "Speculative Positioning",
      "feature_key": "spec_positioning",
      "column": "spec_positioning",
      "z_column": "z_spec_positioning",
      "revises": true,
      "revision_source": "CFTC Commitments of Traders (data/pipeline/cftc_loader.py)",
      "revision_note": "PUBLISHER, and marked True under the conservative default. CFTC reissues COT reports when a reporting firm corrects a submission; corrections are infrequent but they do restate published weeks. Not certain enough to call stable, and the cost of being wrong that way is higher."
    },
    "F8": {
      "name": "Monetary Policy & Rates",
      "feature_key": "rates",
      "column": "rates",
      "z_column": "z_rates",
      "revises": false,
      "revision_source": "FRED FEDFUNDS (data/pipeline/fred_loader.py:25)",
      "revision_note": "PUBLISHER. The effective federal funds rate is the monthly mean of a daily OBSERVED transaction rate. Published as fact, not as an estimate."
    },
    "F9": {
      "name": "Seasonal Demand & Weather",
      "feature_key": "seasonality_weather",
      "column": "seasonality_weather",
      "z_column": "z_seasonality_weather",
      "revises": true,
      "revision_source": "NOAA / EIA (config/pillows.py source_priority)",
      "revision_note": "PUBLISHER. NOAA restates station data through quality control and reissues degree-day series against updated normals. Staged, so not in the fit."
    },
    "F10": {
      "name": "Energy Transition / EVs",
      "feature_key": "energy_transition",
      "column": "energy_transition",
      "z_column": "z_energy_transition",
      "revises": true,
      "revision_source": "IEA (config/pillows.py source_priority)",
      "revision_note": "PUBLISHER. IEA restates historical energy balances in each annual edition. Staged, so not in the fit."
    },
    "F11": {
      "name": "OPEC Spare Capacity",
      "feature_key": "opec_spare_capacity",
      "column": "opec_spare_capacity",
      "z_column": "z_opec_spare_capacity",
      "revises": true,
      "revision_source": "EIA STEO (data/pipeline/steo_capacity_loader.py)",
      "revision_note": "IN-TREE, stated outright at steo_capacity_loader.py:35 -- 'STEO revises its history, and EIA redefined capacity in December 2025', which makes F11 the fourth revision-exposed driver. A redefinition is the strongest form of this: the quantity itself changed, not only its estimate."
    },
    "F12": {
      "name": "Curve Shape (M1-M2)",
      "feature_key": "curve_shape",
      "column": "curve_shape",
      "z_column": "z_curve_shape",
      "revises": false,
      "revision_source": "EIA / NYMEX settlements (config/pillows.py source_priority)",
      "revision_note": "PUBLISHER. M1-M2 is built from OBSERVED futures settlements, which are final on the day. The series was DISCONTINUED at 2024-04-05 (CLAUDE.md section 3), so it cannot be revised either -- there is no publisher left to revise it."
    },
    "F13": {
      "name": "Product Spread (1:1 crack)",
      "feature_key": "product_spread",
      "column": "product_spread",
      "z_column": "z_product_spread",
      "revises": true,
      "revision_source": "FRED DGASNYH, DHOILNYH and DCOILBRENTEU (data/pipeline/product_spread_loader.py)",
      "revision_note": "INHERITED, and the strictest leg decides. The two product legs are OBSERVED spot settlements with nothing to re-estimate, which is the reasoning that marks F5 stable. The crude leg is DCOILBRENTEU -- the same series as the scoring target below, which is declared revising on the conservative default because EIA relays it. A spread cannot be more stable than the legs it is built from, so it takes the target's answer."
    }
  },
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    "rows": 261,
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