{
  "case_id": "2026-09-30",
  "kind": "live",
  "inputs_frozen": true,
  "issued_at": "2026-10-08T08:31:53+00:00",
  "market": "brent",
  "as_of_requested": "2026-10-08",
  "as_of_effective": "2026-09-30",
  "frame_end_month": "2026-09-30",
  "excluded_partial_month": "2026-10-31",
  "primary_scoring_date": "2027-09-30",
  "scoring_dates": {
    "1": "2026-10-31",
    "2": "2026-11-30",
    "3": "2026-12-31",
    "4": "2027-01-31",
    "5": "2027-02-28",
    "6": "2027-03-31",
    "7": "2027-04-30",
    "8": "2027-05-31",
    "9": "2027-06-30",
    "10": "2027-07-31",
    "11": "2027-08-31",
    "12": "2027-09-30"
  },
  "fair_value": 93.5103247292077,
  "market_price": 114.1590909090909,
  "mismatch": 20.64876617988321,
  "sigma": 2.0882335507887086,
  "drivers_used": [
    "z_global_activity",
    "z_geopolitics",
    "z_non_opec_supply",
    "z_usd_index",
    "z_inventory_balance",
    "z_rates",
    "z_product_spread"
  ],
  "pinned_drivers": [],
  "sign_constraints": {
    "z_global_activity": ">= 0",
    "z_geopolitics": ">= 0",
    "z_non_opec_supply": "<= 0",
    "z_usd_index": "<= 0",
    "z_inventory_balance": "<= 0",
    "z_rates": "free",
    "z_product_spread": ">= 0"
  },
  "window": 96,
  "alpha": 2.0,
  "code_version": "d954fab",
  "data_hash": "c464f64f36d24abe",
  "raw_input_hash": "8c739ae2977a09b0",
  "active_drivers": [
    "F1",
    "F3",
    "F4",
    "F5",
    "F6",
    "F8",
    "F13"
  ],
  "capabilities": {
    "drivers": "F1,F3,F4,F5,F6,F8,F13",
    "event_radar": true,
    "events": "radar live since 2026-08-27; curated register"
  },
  "commit": "d954fab",
  "data_to_signature_days": 8,
  "drivers": [
    {
      "id": "F1",
      "name": "Global Economic Activity",
      "z": 1.0604662228857253
    },
    {
      "id": "F3",
      "name": "Geopolitics & Disruptions",
      "z": 0.6161679398969244
    },
    {
      "id": "F4",
      "name": "US Crude Production",
      "z": 1.605222452208395
    },
    {
      "id": "F5",
      "name": "USD Exchange Rate",
      "z": 1.0338609380080275
    },
    {
      "id": "F6",
      "name": "Inventories & Balance",
      "z": 0.7122371111124414
    },
    {
      "id": "F8",
      "name": "Monetary Policy & Rates",
      "z": 0.9610436952053772
    },
    {
      "id": "F13",
      "name": "Product Spread (1:1 crack)",
      "z": 4.473389691661784
    }
  ],
  "fair_value_band_today": {
    "p10": 75.0819168703498,
    "p90": 101.95783952671829
  },
  "fair_value_path": [
    {
      "horizon_months": 1,
      "date": "2026-10-31",
      "p10": 76.2494868817572,
      "p50": 93.51032472920771,
      "p90": 102.51706493896371,
      "band_available": true,
      "band_unavailable_reason": null,
      "floor_applied": false,
      "walk_forward_errors": 152
    },
    {
      "horizon_months": 2,
      "date": "2026-11-30",
      "p10": 74.78258802677624,
      "p50": 93.51032472920771,
      "p90": 102.44132822391603,
      "band_available": true,
      "band_unavailable_reason": null,
      "floor_applied": false,
      "walk_forward_errors": 151
    },
    {
      "horizon_months": 3,
      "date": "2026-12-31",
      "p10": 72.52088520084165,
      "p50": 93.51032472920771,
      "p90": 104.61347342556337,
      "band_available": true,
      "band_unavailable_reason": null,
      "floor_applied": false,
      "walk_forward_errors": 150
    },
    {
      "horizon_months": 4,
      "date": "2027-01-31",
      "p10": 69.84844309860433,
      "p50": 93.51032472920771,
      "p90": 103.00184084139411,
      "band_available": true,
      "band_unavailable_reason": null,
      "floor_applied": false,
      "walk_forward_errors": 149
    },
    {
      "horizon_months": 5,
      "date": "2027-02-28",
      "p10": 66.1531081751066,
      "p50": 93.51032472920771,
      "p90": 104.42684706785789,
      "band_available": true,
      "band_unavailable_reason": null,
      "floor_applied": false,
      "walk_forward_errors": 148
    },
    {
      "horizon_months": 6,
      "date": "2027-03-31",
      "p10": 61.88108263939394,
      "p50": 93.51032472920771,
      "p90": 106.4620953198228,
      "band_available": true,
      "band_unavailable_reason": null,
      "floor_applied": false,
      "walk_forward_errors": 147
    },
    {
      "horizon_months": 7,
      "date": "2027-04-30",
      "p10": 59.22114043786918,
      "p50": 93.51032472920771,
      "p90": 111.09688263642916,
      "band_available": true,
      "band_unavailable_reason": null,
      "floor_applied": false,
      "walk_forward_errors": 146
    },
    {
      "horizon_months": 8,
      "date": "2027-05-31",
      "p10": 58.96630979548169,
      "p50": 93.51032472920771,
      "p90": 110.4464279345751,
      "band_available": true,
      "band_unavailable_reason": null,
      "floor_applied": false,
      "walk_forward_errors": 145
    },
    {
      "horizon_months": 9,
      "date": "2027-06-30",
      "p10": 55.353567177268346,
      "p50": 93.51032472920771,
      "p90": 108.16362003216629,
      "band_available": true,
      "band_unavailable_reason": null,
      "floor_applied": false,
      "walk_forward_errors": 144
    },
    {
      "horizon_months": 10,
      "date": "2027-07-31",
      "p10": 51.97758605930466,
      "p50": 93.51032472920771,
      "p90": 113.86679481950526,
      "band_available": true,
      "band_unavailable_reason": null,
      "floor_applied": false,
      "walk_forward_errors": 143
    },
    {
      "horizon_months": 11,
      "date": "2027-08-31",
      "p10": 52.83541953535563,
      "p50": 93.51032472920771,
      "p90": 113.09416878152395,
      "band_available": true,
      "band_unavailable_reason": null,
      "floor_applied": false,
      "walk_forward_errors": 142
    },
    {
      "horizon_months": 12,
      "date": "2027-09-30",
      "p10": 49.14222127346724,
      "p50": 93.51032472920771,
      "p90": 113.96847247864973,
      "band_available": true,
      "band_unavailable_reason": null,
      "floor_applied": false,
      "walk_forward_errors": 141
    }
  ],
  "fit_start_effective": "2018-10-31",
  "forecast": [
    {
      "horizon_months": 1,
      "date": "2026-10-31",
      "p10": 104.74999616405576,
      "p50": 112.78100908271607,
      "p90": 119.99265682902369,
      "band_available": true,
      "band_unavailable_reason": null,
      "floor_applied": false,
      "walk_forward_errors": 152
    },
    {
      "horizon_months": 2,
      "date": "2026-11-30",
      "p10": 99.18200157626902,
      "p50": 111.49489931431508,
      "p90": 121.33747507189082,
      "band_available": true,
      "band_unavailable_reason": null,
      "floor_applied": false,
      "walk_forward_errors": 151
    },
    {
      "horizon_months": 3,
      "date": "2026-12-31",
      "p10": 94.75340498614753,
      "p50": 110.29462346369476,
      "p90": 122.39212064984194,
      "band_available": true,
      "band_unavailable_reason": null,
      "floor_applied": false,
      "walk_forward_errors": 150
    },
    {
      "horizon_months": 4,
      "date": "2027-01-31",
      "p10": 91.87890315987997,
      "p50": 109.17445304513595,
      "p90": 124.07332339167263,
      "band_available": true,
      "band_unavailable_reason": null,
      "floor_applied": false,
      "walk_forward_errors": 149
    },
    {
      "horizon_months": 5,
      "date": "2027-02-28",
      "p10": 90.5152111891005,
      "p50": 108.12904188738771,
      "p90": 125.70109961307553,
      "band_available": true,
      "band_unavailable_reason": null,
      "floor_applied": false,
      "walk_forward_errors": 148
    },
    {
      "horizon_months": 6,
      "date": "2027-03-31",
      "p10": 84.61119282610358,
      "p50": 107.15340061831137,
      "p90": 127.75195792712813,
      "band_available": true,
      "band_unavailable_reason": null,
      "floor_applied": false,
      "walk_forward_errors": 147
    },
    {
      "horizon_months": 7,
      "date": "2027-04-30",
      "p10": 82.06548620643576,
      "p50": 106.24287285239849,
      "p90": 129.04714868801858,
      "band_available": true,
      "band_unavailable_reason": null,
      "floor_applied": false,
      "walk_forward_errors": 146
    },
    {
      "horizon_months": 8,
      "date": "2027-05-31",
      "p10": 78.16891474468477,
      "p50": 105.39311296751458,
      "p90": 130.92869144242317,
      "band_available": true,
      "band_unavailable_reason": null,
      "floor_applied": false,
      "walk_forward_errors": 145
    },
    {
      "horizon_months": 9,
      "date": "2027-06-30",
      "p10": 74.17437078745232,
      "p50": 104.60006536480479,
      "p90": 132.8878272695667,
      "band_available": true,
      "band_unavailable_reason": null,
      "floor_applied": false,
      "walk_forward_errors": 144
    },
    {
      "horizon_months": 10,
      "date": "2027-07-31",
      "p10": 69.15687744360366,
      "p50": 103.85994511277657,
      "p90": 135.1004023923391,
      "band_available": true,
      "band_unavailable_reason": null,
      "floor_applied": false,
      "walk_forward_errors": 143
    },
    {
      "horizon_months": 11,
      "date": "2027-08-31",
      "p10": 68.34580077562903,
      "p50": 103.16921988318052,
      "p90": 133.75856144162208,
      "band_available": true,
      "band_unavailable_reason": null,
      "floor_applied": false,
      "walk_forward_errors": 142
    },
    {
      "horizon_months": 12,
      "date": "2027-09-30",
      "p10": 64.65297404485676,
      "p50": 102.52459309247583,
      "p90": 135.92322945611218,
      "band_available": true,
      "band_unavailable_reason": null,
      "floor_applied": false,
      "walk_forward_errors": 141
    }
  ],
  "gap": 20.64876617988321,
  "half_life": {
    "method": "walk_forward_ar1",
    "converging": true,
    "phi": 0.9332608149867366,
    "pairs": 152,
    "minimum_pairs": 25,
    "first_pair_origin": "2014-01-31",
    "forecast": "market-anchored decay",
    "reason": null
  },
  "half_life_months": 10.035347227077835,
  "issue_date": "2026-10-08",
  "private_part_sha256": "4b28329fbee1a9f3dea37411c0bebd39b565e525be958086581b32d20134b3a1",
  "quarter": "2026-Q3",
  "schema": "oiltrader.draft_case/2",
  "scoring_month": "2027-09",
  "scoring_rule": "archive/SCORING_RULE_v2.md",
  "scoring_rule_applicable": "archive/SCORING_RULE_v2.md",
  "signed_by": "Klaas Kostro",
  "signed_date": "2026-10-08",
  "structural": {
    "paths": [
      {
        "horizon_months": 1,
        "date": "2026-10-31",
        "p10": 76.2494868817572,
        "p50": 93.51032472920771,
        "p90": 102.51706493896371
      },
      {
        "horizon_months": 2,
        "date": "2026-11-30",
        "p10": 74.78258802677624,
        "p50": 93.51032472920771,
        "p90": 102.44132822391603
      },
      {
        "horizon_months": 3,
        "date": "2026-12-31",
        "p10": 72.52088520084165,
        "p50": 93.51032472920771,
        "p90": 104.61347342556337
      },
      {
        "horizon_months": 4,
        "date": "2027-01-31",
        "p10": 69.84844309860433,
        "p50": 93.51032472920771,
        "p90": 103.00184084139411
      },
      {
        "horizon_months": 5,
        "date": "2027-02-28",
        "p10": 66.1531081751066,
        "p50": 93.51032472920771,
        "p90": 104.42684706785789
      },
      {
        "horizon_months": 6,
        "date": "2027-03-31",
        "p10": 61.88108263939394,
        "p50": 93.51032472920771,
        "p90": 106.4620953198228
      },
      {
        "horizon_months": 7,
        "date": "2027-04-30",
        "p10": 59.22114043786918,
        "p50": 93.51032472920771,
        "p90": 111.09688263642916
      },
      {
        "horizon_months": 8,
        "date": "2027-05-31",
        "p10": 58.96630979548169,
        "p50": 93.51032472920771,
        "p90": 110.4464279345751
      },
      {
        "horizon_months": 9,
        "date": "2027-06-30",
        "p10": 55.353567177268346,
        "p50": 93.51032472920771,
        "p90": 108.16362003216629
      },
      {
        "horizon_months": 10,
        "date": "2027-07-31",
        "p10": 51.97758605930466,
        "p50": 93.51032472920771,
        "p90": 113.86679481950526
      },
      {
        "horizon_months": 11,
        "date": "2027-08-31",
        "p10": 52.83541953535563,
        "p50": 93.51032472920771,
        "p90": 113.09416878152395
      },
      {
        "horizon_months": 12,
        "date": "2027-09-30",
        "p10": 49.14222127346724,
        "p50": 93.51032472920771,
        "p90": 113.96847247864973
      }
    ]
  }
}