# Brent case 2026-09-30

- Case: 2026-09-30
- Kind: live
- Frame end: 2026-09-30
- Signed: 2026-10-08
- Scoring month: 2027-09
- Forecast h=12 P10 / P50 / P90: 64.65 / 102.52 / 135.92

## Drivers

| Driver | z |
|---|---|
| F1 Global Economic Activity | 1.060 |
| F3 Geopolitics & Disruptions | 0.616 |
| F4 US Crude Production | 1.605 |
| F5 USD Exchange Rate | 1.034 |
| F6 Inventories & Balance | 0.712 |
| F8 Monetary Policy & Rates | 0.961 |
| F13 Product Spread (1:1 crack) | 4.473 |

## Method

| item | value |
|---|---|
| commit | d954fab |
| market | brent |
| quarter | 2026-Q3 |
| issue date | 2026-10-08 |
| frame end month | 2026-09-30 |
| fit start | 2018-10-31 |
| fit end | 2026-09-30 |
| scoring rule | archive/SCORING_RULE_v2.md (version 2) |
| libraries | python 3.13.15, numpy 2.5.3, scipy 1.18.1, pandas 3.0.5 |

## Signature

Klaas Kostro, Dipl.-Ing.\
Reservoir Engineer (Lagerstätteningenieur) — for Reservoir GmbH

Reference series: the monthly mean of daily Brent spot settlements as published by FRED (series DCOILBRENTEU), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU.

Page: 2026-09-30.html

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Reference Case is an opinion on the physical Brent crude oil price, published by Reservoir GmbH for planning and reporting purposes. It is not investment advice, not an investment recommendation, and not addressed to investors in financial instruments. It is not an offer or a solicitation to enter into any transaction, and it makes no promise that the price will fall within the range. Nothing published here may be relied on by anyone.