Calibration
How often the range has held. Counted once per fit.
The archive holds no cases yet.
EXHIBIT C.1 · OUTCOMES BY BAND
Where each outcome fell among the published P10, P50 and P90; a calibrated band puts 10%, 40%, 40% and 10% in the four places (dashed).
Live cases
Forecast (headline)
No cases scored yet.
Fair value (diagnostic)
No cases scored yet.
Backfill cases
Forecast (headline)
No cases scored yet.
Fair value (diagnostic)
No cases scored yet.
EXHIBIT C.2 · BY HORIZON
Live cases
Forecast (headline)
No cases scored yet.
Fair value (diagnostic)
No cases scored yet.
Backfill cases
Forecast (headline)
No cases scored yet.
Fair value (diagnostic)
No cases scored yet.
Counted from the scores in the archive, one block per kind and never pooled. A backfill case was produced after its outcome existed; a live case was said in advance. About ten independent observations stand behind a year of overlapping monthly errors, so no rate here is evidence that the band will hold in the next regime.
EXHIBIT C.3 · THE RULE
A scoreable claim is one unique fit: one pair of data_hash and as_of_effective.